The MLB starting pitching rotation has been evolving for more than a century: We’ve seen the 3-man rotation, the 4-man rotation, the 5-man rotation, and now even some 6-man rotations.

However, the optimal rotation is the 5.5-man rotation. In this analysis, I’ll explain why.

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While looking at the nearly 1200 sac flies hit in 2023, I noticed an interesting paradox: The average sacrifice fly reduced the offensive team’s expected runs scored in the inning by 0.284 runs. At the same time, it increased the offensive team’s win probability by 1%.

Sac flies are a perfect example of situational hitting in baseball: while they might hurt the offense when trailing by multiple runs in the late innings, they can become invaluable in tied games, one-run contests late in the game, or when the offense is holding a lead. In these situations, sac flies serve as a great way to elevate the batting team's win probability.

In this analysis I’ll break down the characteristics of pitches that batters should look for when aiming to hit a sac fly, and the characteristics of pitches that pitchers and catchers should avoid when trying to prevent a sac fly.

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top free agent starting pitcher this offseason, coming off three straight Sawamura Award seasons (top starting pitcher) and three straight Pacific League MVPs in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB).

However, history shows that Japanese starting pitchers often struggle to replicate their performances upon transitioning to Major League Baseball (MLB). The MLB's typical five-day rotation allows for less recovery time between starts compared to the NPB's once-a-week rotation. In addition, there is a difference in the hitting approach between the MLB and the NPB, with the MLB favoring power hitting over contact. These discrepancies present a significant challenge for Japanese pitchers making the switch to the MLB.

In this analysis, I look into the eleven starters who have made the journey from the NPB to the MLB to attempt to answer how Yamamoto will perform in his new ballclub.

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Gerrit Cole has finally done it. After two second place finishes, two fourth place finishes and one fifth place finish, the Yankee ace has locked down his first Cy Young award. Cole led American league pitchers in W-L%, ERA, games started, shutouts, innings pitched, ERA+, WHIP, hits/9, and bWAR. He is certainly deserving of the award, winning unanimously.

Cole’s bWAR in 2023 is even higher than his dominant 2019 season with the Astros in which he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and led the league with 326 strikeouts, narrowly losing to teammate Justin Verlander in the Cy Young voting.

So why this year? How did he finally get there?

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In the world of baseball, both pitchers and batters are constantly strategizing to gain an edge. Pitchers carefully choose their pitches and arm angles based on the situation, while batters make subtle adjustments in their stances or even switch to lighter bats against particular pitchers.

But are batters fully utilizing the spectrum of swing varieties to maximize their performance?

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Game 1 of a playoff series; matchup of aces, and an electric pitchers’ duel coming up. Whether it's a three-game Wild Card Series, five-game Division Series, or seven-game Championship or World Series, seizing victory in Game 1 and exerting pressure on your opponent is vital.

It seems optimal to have your ace take the mound for that start, granting your team the flexibility to bring him back earlier in the series, and perhaps even from the bullpen in a critical do-or-die scenario. However, can there be exceptions to this conventional philosophy? If Game 1 entails facing off against an elite pitcher such as Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, or Jacob DeGrom, could it be wiser to hold your ace for Game 2 to enhance your overall series prospects?

In this analysis, I will explore how a team can alternatively structure its playoff pitching rotation to maximize its chance of winning the series.

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A recent post by Tom Tango about platoon splits by pitch type revealed that changeups and curveballs are the two pitches with the most significant reverse platoon advantage - that is, right-handed pitcher changeups and curveballs are more effective against left-handed batters, and left-handed pitcher changeups and curveballs are more effective against right-handed batters. Changeups tail to the arm side and away from batters on the opposite side of the pitcher, so a reverse platoon advantage there is not surprising.

But why are curveballs more effective against batters with the opposite handedness of the pitcher? And how can pitchers use that to optimize their execution of curveballs?

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My previous analysis (Who Wants the Robo-Ump? And Who Doesn’t..) focused on which batters, pitchers, and catchers that will be most impacted by having a robot umpire - the automated strike zone (ABS) set to be introduced into the MLB some time in the next few years.

But how will pitch types and pitch locations be impacted by the ABS?

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The Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS), also referred to as “the robot umpire”, is coming to Major League Baseball within the next few years. ABS will certainly have an impact on catchers, who are currently credited or discredited for Framing Runs based on their ability to pull borderline pitches into the strike zone and hold them for the umpire to believe they were strikes.

But how will ABS impact batters and pitchers? Will superstars no longer get superstar treatment on borderline calls? And who will ABS benefit more - pitchers or hitters?

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