What is The Optimal Punt Location?

Photo Credit: New York Jets

In “honor” of the Giants and Jets achieving a 20-year record with 24 punts in an NFL game in Week 8, I’ve analyzed the relationship between punt location and the opponent’s starting field position to determine whether there is an optimal location to punt from.

I’ve examined all punts from the current and past five seasons, and grouped pre-punt locations into five-yard bins. The relationship between pre-punt, post-punt and post-return field positions is illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: A look into the relationship between pre-punt, post-punt, and post-return field positions. The pre-punt locations are grouped into five-yard bins. The punt location yard line is the distance to the opponent’s endzone.

As evident from the figure, when a team punts from between its own endzone and its own 66-yard line, each five yards of pre-punt field position results in 4.7 yards of post-punt yardage and 5.3 yards of post-return yardage.

Between the 66-yard line and midfield, a five-yard shift in pre-punt field position corresponds to 2.3 yards of post-punt yardage and 3.3 yards of post-return yardage.

However, between midfield and the opponent’s 31-yard line, the dynamics change. From midfield to the opponent’s 46-yard line, there is a gain of 1.4 yards in post-punt yardage and 2.0 yards in post-return yardage.

Between the opponent’s 46-yard line and the opponent’s 41-yard line, a gain of 0.8 yards in post-punt yardage and 1.2 yards in post-return yardage is observed.

Moving on to the stretch between the opponent’s 41-yard line and the opponent’s 36-yard line, there is a gain of 0.2 yards in post-punt yardage and a gain of 0.2 yards in post-return yardage.

Finally, between the opponent’s 36-yard line and the opponent’s 31-yard line, there is a loss of 1.7 yards in post-punt yardage and a loss of 0.5 yards in post-return yardage.

Figure 2 zooms in on punting from the opponent’s side of the field.

Figure 2: A look into the relationship between pre-punt, post-punt, and post-return field position on the opponent’s side of the field. The pre-punt locations are grouped into five-yard bins. The punt location yard line is the distance to the opponent’s endzone.

Clearly, instead of punting from inside the opponent’s 35-yard line, the possessing team should opt for a five-yard delay of game penalty and punt from the opponent’s 36-yard line. However, it is not recommended to incur the delay of game penalty and move back from the 36-yard line to the 41-yard line or from the 41-yard line to the 46-yard line.

The league has taken notice of this short punt paradox, as there has been only one punt from inside the opponent’s 35-yard line since the start of the 2023 season, following seven such punts in 2018, five in 2019, three in 2020, four in 2021, and four in 2022.