Cole Wins Cy Young. How Did He Finally Succeed?
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Gerrit Cole has finally done it. After two second place finishes, two fourth place finishes, and one fifth place finish, the Yankee ace has locked down his first Cy Young award. Cole led American league pitchers in W-L%, ERA, games started, shutouts, innings pitched, ERA+, WHIP, hits/9, and bWAR. He is certainly deserving of the award, winning unanimously.
Cole’s bWAR in 2023 is even higher than his dominant 2019 season with the Astros in which he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and led the league with 326 strikeouts, narrowly losing to teammate Justin Verlander in the Cy Young voting.
So why this year? How did he finally get there? In this post, I’ll compare Cole’s 2023 performance to his performance in his first three seasons as a Yankee from 2020 to 2022, to see what the veteran ace did differently this year to finally catch his white whale.
Pitch Mix
Let’s take a look at his pitch mix through his years as a Yankee, outlined in Table 1.
Table 1: Cole’s pitch breakdown by usage and velocity in his first three years as a Yankee compared to 2023
Cole introduced a cutter to his repertoire in 2022 with a 6.4% usage. However, he wasn’t able to execute the pitch with enough consistency, yielding a run value of -2, as evident from Table 2 below. His cutter execution was significantly improved in 2023, yielding a run value of 0 despite a jump in usage. But why is a pitch with 0 run value important to his success?
The presence of an average cutter has allowed Cole to increase his 4-seamer usage by 3%, even with a 1 mph velocity drop. Hitters, mindful of the cutter's potential late break, struggle to fully commit to hitting the fastball. As a result, Cole's 4-seamer improved to the highest-rated fastball in the majors in 2023 with a run value of +29. The added variation from the introduction of Cole's cutter has allowed a reduction in his slider, knuckle curve, and changeup usages. The decrease in secondary pitch usage enhances their deception. In 2023, the combined run value for these three secondary pitches was +16, marking a career high for Cole.
Table 2: Run Value of Cole’s pitches over the past four seasons (Baseball Savant). 2020 cumulative numbers are lower due to the shortened season.
Location
Now let’s take a look at Cole’s pitch location against left-handed batters (LHB) in 2020-2022 and 2023, depicted in Figure 1 and Figure 2, respectively.
Figure 1: Cole’s pitch usage (%) by location vs. LHBs from 2020-2022. The middle 16 rectangles represent the strike zone (as seen from the catcher’s perspective)
Figure 2: Cole’s pitch usage (%) by location vs. LHBs in 2023. The middle 16 rectangles represent the strike zone (as seen from the catcher’s perspective).
In 2023, Cole reduced the percentage of pitches to lefties thrown down and away, outside of the strike zone, from 14% to 9%. Simultaneously, he increased the percentage of pitches to lefties thrown up and in, outside the strike zone, from 6% to 10%. With fewer changeups down and away and more cutters and 4-seamers up and in, the impact of Cole’s cutter is clearly seen in his pitch location to lefties.
Employing cutters up and in, even outside the strike zone, proves to be an effective tactic for jamming left-handed batters and inducing weak contact. The variation the cutters provide also makes it more difficult for hitters to catch up with the straighter and faster 4-seamer. Additionally, the reduced changeup usage increases the changeup’s deception and effectiveness.
Let’s take a look at Cole’s pitch location against right-handed batters (RHB) in 2020-2022 and in 2023, illustrated in Figure 3 and Figure 4, respectively.
Figure 3: Cole’s pitch usage (%) by location vs. RHBs from 2020-2022. The middle 16 rectangles represent the strike zone (as seen from the catcher’s perspective).
Figure 4: Cole’s pitch usage (%) by location vs. RHBs in 2023. The middle 16 rectangles represent the strike zone (as seen from the catcher’s perspective).
As we can see, the pattern continues: In 2023 Cole, reduced the percentage of pitches to righties thrown down and away, outside the zone, from 35% to 29%. In addition, he increased the percentage of pitches to righties thrown up and in, outside the zone, from 8% to 12%.
Pitching his 4-seamer up and in to righties has made them less comfortable at the plate and has increased the effectiveness of Cole’s curveball. The curveball tracks the path of a high fastball before dropping into the zone for a called strike. Reducing his slider down and away frequency has also increased the deception and effectiveness of the slider.
Evaluating Luck and Skill, and Setting Expectations for 2024 and Beyond
Experiencing a remarkable career year often involves an element of luck, and Cole found himself on the favorable side in 2023. Aside from benefiting from numerous close strike calls, Cole's wOBA of .256 falls well below his xwOBA of .289, calculated based on the frequency and quality of contact against him. Consequently, a degree of regression is anticipated for him in 2024.
According to Steamer projections for 2024, Cole is expected to have an ERA of 3.72, which represents a very significant 1.09 increase from his exceptional 2023 performance and is higher than his career average by more than half a point. These projections anticipate a rise in Cole’s 9.4% HR/FB rate, bringing it closer to the league average.
However, there remains an opportunity for Cole to further refine his cutter, which he has diligently worked on for two full seasons. If he is successful in elevating his cutter into an above-average pitch in 2024, it could potentially aid him in both limiting home runs and preventing opposing teams from scoring.
