EPL: Who Can Secure A Top 4 Finish, and Who is Facing Relegation?

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Eleven matches into the 2023-24 EPL season, Manchester City currently leads the table, followed by Tottenham, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Following my NFL ELO analysis from last week, I wondered: Can we use the ELO framework to identify the EPL teams likely to secure a top 4 finish, and those facing potential relegation?

I generated two-year rolling ELO scores for all 23 EPL teams (including the three teams relegated last season) based on their performance over the previous two seasons. The findings are illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Two-year rolling ELO scores of the 23 EPL teams

As we see from the graph, Manchester City overtook Arsenal in Match Week 31 of last season and has maintained its lead since. Liverpool has been on an impressive streak since falling slightly below average in Match Week 20 last year. The teams relegated last season, namely Leicester, Leeds, and Southampton, concluded the year with the lowest ELO ratings. Despite a narrow margin ahead of Leicester in ELO, Bournemouth secured safety on the table with a five-point cushion.

Table 1 highlights Tottenham as the most significantly improved team this season, with Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, and Aston Villa also showing notable progress.

On the other hand, the three newly promoted teams, Burnley, Sheffield, and Luton, have encountered considerable challenges, along with Bournemouth, Manchester United, and Brentford.

Table 1: Change in ELO of 20 EPL teams this season

The current ELO rankings are shown in Table 2. Breaking down the teams in tiers, we have the following:

• Tier 1: City

• Tier 2: Arsenal

• Tier 3:

  • Liverpool

  • Newcastle

  • Tottenham

• Tier 4:

  • Aston Villa

  • Manchester United

• Tier 5:

  • Brighton

  • Brentford

• Tier 6: Crystal Palace

• Tier 7:

  • Nottingham Forest

  • Fulham

• Tier 8:

  • Wolves

  • West Ham

  • Chelsea

• Tier 9:

  • Everton

  • Luton

  • Sheffield United

• Tier 10:

  • Burnley

  • Bournemouth

Table 2: Current EPL ELO rankings

So Who Will Be in The Top 4, and Who Will Face Relegation?

Manchester City is well on course to secure the title once again this season, and Arsenal has quite a secure position in the top 4. The competition for the remaining two spots in the top 4 is heating up among Liverpool, Newcastle, and Tottenham, with one of them inevitably falling short.

Aston Villa and Manchester United find themselves just outside of top 4 contention, while Brighton, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Fulham, Wolves, West Ham, and Chelsea firmly hold their positions as mid-table teams. Burnley and Bournemouth are facing the prospect of relegation, and they are likely to be accompanied by one of Everton, Luton, and Sheffield.