The EPL title race saw a major shift this past weekend when Liverpool came back from 0-1 down to defeat Brighton 2-1, and Arsenal went into the Etihad and held Manchester City to a scoreless draw.

In this analysis, I’ll use the last two seasons of EPL matches to rank the three contenders, considering the strength of opponent, final score, and each team’s expected goals scored (xG) based on the shots that they took/allowed in each match. I will then predict the match outcomes of the final nine weeks of the season and determine how likely each team is to capture the Premier League title.

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Watching Liverpool winger Mohammad Salah this year has been very entertaining. In the first half of his seventh season with Liverpool— all under the guidance of manager Jurgen Klopp— the 31-year-old Salah is tied for the EPL lead in goals scored with 14 and tied for the lead in assists with 8. His consistently productive performance has me wondering: Where does he rank among the most prolific EPL attackers in recent times?

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Eleven matches into the 2023-24 EPL season, Manchester City currently leads the table, followed by Tottenham, Liverpool, and Arsenal. Following my NFL ELO analysis from last week, I wondered: Can we use the ELO framework to identify the EPL teams likely to secure a top 4 finish, and those facing potential relegation?

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Erling Haaland and Manchester City are off to another strong start in the 2023-24 season, collecting all 12 points in their first four fixtures with Haaland already netting six goals, putting him on pace for an absurd 57 goals in the season. Haaland’s 36 goals last season set the all-time single-season EPL record, passing both Andy Cole and Alan Shearer’s marks of 34 goals in a 42-game season, and Mohammed Salah’s mark of 32 goals in a 38-game season.

But how good was Haaland really last season? And can he replicate that success?

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