Haaland’s Magical Season: How Good Was He Really, and Can He Do It Again?

Photo Credit: Martin Rickett/PA

Erling Haaland and Manchester City are off to another strong start in the 2023-24 season, collecting all 12 points in their first four fixtures with Haaland already netting six goals, putting him on pace for an absurd 57 goals in the season. Haaland’s 36 goals last season set the all-time single-season EPL record, passing both Andy Cole and Alan Shearer’s marks of 34 goals in a 42-game season, and Mohammed Salah’s mark of 32 goals in a 38-game season.

But how good was Haaland really last season? And can he replicate that success?

To answer that, let’s look deeper into the numbers to see how Haaland’s 2022-23 season compares to that of his 16 EPL peers who also managed to score more than 10 goals last season.

Chart 1: Non-penalty goals (y-axis) versus non-penalty expected goals (x-axis)

Chart 1 shows non-penalty goals for Haaland and the other top 16 EPL scorers versus non-penalty expected goals (xG), i.e., the sum of the goal probability of shots taken based on shot location.

The 17 top scorers outperformed their non-penalty xG by an average of 0.09 goals per 90 min. Haaland, however, outperformed his xG by 0.16 goals per 90 min, trailing only Roberto Firmino (0.39 non-penalty xG outperformance) and Marcus Rashford (0.32 non-penalty xG outperformance). There is little doubt that superior shooting ability has gotten all these players on the top scorer leaderboard, in addition to the playmakers on their teams feeding them in scoring positions.

Haaland’s combination of 0.77 non-penalty xG per 90 min, trailing only Newcastle’s Callum Wilson (0.79), is a testament to both his ability to consistently create space and get off shots, and Manchester City’s ability to frequently get him the ball in threatening positions. His shooting accuracy and velocity leads to his 0.16 non-penalty xG outperformance and makes him a truly world class finisher.

However, Haaland has been below average relative to his top goal-scoring EPL peers in shot-creating actions (SCA) per 90 min, as evident from Chart 2. A SCA is a pass, dribble, shot, foul drawn, or clearance that leads directly to a shot. Haaland’s 2.3 SCA compares unfavorably to his 16 peers’ average of 3.19. His teammate Phil Foden is leading the pack with 4.98 SCA per 90 min, followed closely by Arsenal playmakers Bukayo Saka (4.85 SCA/90) and Martin Ødegaard (4.71 SCA/90).

Chart 2: SCA of the EPL’s top scorers. The black line represents the average SCA (3.19) for Haaland’s 16 peers

Predicting Haaland’s Success This Season

Haaland’s ability to convert goal-scoring chances into goals is clearly elite, but he is not able to create many chances for himself. Thus, in order to predict Haaland’s success this season, it is important to study whether his Manchester City teammates will be able to create as many chances for him this season as they did last season. One key player who may hold the answer to this question is Belgian midfielder Kevin DeBruyne.

DeBruyne has ranked in the 99th percentile among midfielders with 6.16 SCA per 90 min over the past year, but is expected to miss about half of the 2023-2024 season after suffering a re-aggravation hamstring injury in City’s first fixture of the season against Burnley. DeBruyne played 2529 EPL minutes in 2022-23. His hamstring injury is likely to limit him to just over half of that this season, approximately 1370 minutes, and likely reduce his SCA per 90 to around 5.5. Since City averages 1.83 SCA per shot, in total, this means City will have 49 fewer shots resulting from DeBruyne’s limited play this season.

Mateo Kovacic has replaced DeBruyne in the lineup, and averaging 3.28 SCA, he should recover 23 of the lost shots. Moreover, a healthy Phil Foden will be able to contribute much more this season after playing just 18 games and 1694 minutes last year. Foden should be able to log 2380 minutes this campaign and even if his SCA regresses to 4.5, he should create 14 more shots than last season.

Net of DeBruyne, Kovacic, and Foden, Manchester City is down 12 shots from last season. City totaled 590 non-penalty shots in 2022-23, 114 of which were taken by Haaland, so the Norweigan striker should expect to lose 2.32 shots and consequently 0.7 goals this season.

With 0.7 goals lost to fewer shots, but off to a fast start of six goals in four matches, Haaland is expected to finish with 37.5* goals, breaking his record from last season, assuming he can maintain his 0.16 non-penalty xG outperformance. Any dip in shooting effectiveness will push him just below his mark from last year and any uptick will almost surely rewrite the record books again.

*Expectation increased from 36.9 goals on Sep 11, incorporating Man City’s 1.83 SCA/shot.