Running Wild: Have We Reached an Inflection Point in the NFL Offensive Strategy Equilibrium?
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
The NFL is a passing league. Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers have more protection than ever, Running Backs are having lengthy holdouts stemming from under-payment, and everybody loves to watch high scoring shootouts.
But why did the league’s run percentage just have the largest year-to-year increase since 2017, and the second largest year-to-year increase since 2003? Last year’s increase has catapulted the league’s run percentage to the highest level since 2010, leading me to wonder: Have we reached an inflection point in the NFL offensive strategy equilibrium?
To answer this, let’s take a look at play-by-play data to see which down-distance combinations saw the greatest increase or decrease in run percentage from the 2021-22 season to last year’s 2022-23 season.
Chart 1: Percentage of offensive plays (pass plays and run plays), excluding spikes and kneels, that were rush attempts from 1999-2000 to 2022-23.
Chart 1 shows the league’s run percentage, which is the percentage of offensive plays (run plays or pass plays), from 1999 to 2022. From 1999 to 2008, the league’s run percentage oscillated around 43-44% before taking a linear path down to the trough of just under 40% in 2016. As evident from the chart, run percentage has been on the rise since 2016 and could be primed to revisit or even surpass the levels of 20 years ago.
Figure 1: Heat map of the year-to-year increase/decrease in run percentage from the 2021-22 season to the 2022-23 season based on down and distance in short yardage situations. Warm colors signify an increase in run percentage and cool colors signify a decrease in run percentage.
Looking at the heat map in Figure 1, NFL teams are running the ball more on 3rd and short and 4th and short, but running the ball less on 2nd and short. Having studied the data surrounding scoring expectancy and win probability, NFL teams are more willing to go for 4th and short than ever before. Consequently, teams are also running the ball more on 3rd and short, knowing that they have the option of a QB sneak on 4th down, should the 3rd and short run not succeed in getting a 1st down.
With the 3rd/4th and short strategy more consistently leading to 1st downs, 2nd and short is being used more frequently as a big play down where teams are going for chunk yardage in the passing game. An incompletion on 2nd and short is not as costly as it used to be, with the improved 3rd/4th and short strategy, so going for a big play on 2nd and short has a positive risk/reward tradeoff.
So Which Teams Are Benefitting The Most from The Strategy Shift?
The Philadelphia Eagles led the NFL in rushing attempts in 4th and short (<4 yards to go) situations with 21 attempts last season. That was four attempts more than the next highest team, the Cleveland Browns, and 2.4x the league average of 8.75 4th and short rushing attempts per team.
The Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who finished 2nd in MVP behind Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, is the key to the Eagles rushing and offensive success. Hurts alone had 16 of the Eagles 4th and short rushing attempts, more than any other player in the NFL. The next closest was then Browns (now Commanders) QB Jacoby Brissett with 10. Hurts has tremendous lower body strength, proven by his legendary 600-pound squat in college at Oklahoma. The rugby-style QB sneak that Eagles coach Nick Sirianni has brought to the league, in combination with Hurts’ legs and ability to keep pushing the pile, has set a chain reaction across the Eagles offense and throughout the league.
