What is Schmidt’s Optimal Pitch Mix?
Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated
Yankees pitcher Clarke Schmidt had a successful rookie season in 2022 as a reliever, posting a 3.12 earned run average (ERA) over 57.2 innings pitched. In 2023, when forced into the starting rotation due to injuries to Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas, Schmidt struggled at first—his ERA at the end of April was 6.84. However, since the start of May, Schmidt has adjusted his pitch frequencies and has seen his ERA drop steadily to 4.54. After ace Gerrit Cole, Schmidt has been the most consistent starting pitcher for the Yankees in the second half of the season.
Watching Schmidt this season has me wondering how he can further realize his potential. What is the game theory optimal pitch distribution that he should use?
To answer this, I am going to analyze the pitch distribution of right-handed starting pitchers with similar repertoires to Schmidt’s and estimate the optimal strategy against both right-handed and left-handed batters.
First, let’s take a look at Schmidt’s 2023 versus 2022 pitch breakdown, as illustrated in Table 1 and Table 2, respectively. Evidently, they are quite different, with the introduction of his cutter (FC) and the disappearance of his 4-seamer (FF).
Table 1: Schmidt’s 2023 pitch breakdown; CH=Changeup, FC=Cutter, KC=Knuckle Curve,
SI= Sinker, ST= Sweeper
Table 2: Schmidt’s 2022 pitch breakdown;
CH= Changeup, FF=4-seamer, KC=Knuckle Curve, SI=Sinker, ST=Sweeper
Schmidt shrunk his changeup usage from 4.4% to 1.1%, significantly increased his knuckle-curve usage from 16.6% to 19.4%, significantly reduced his sweeper usage from 38.8% to 27.9%, and replaced his 4-seamer with a cutter with 27.8% usage. As evident from the respective xWOBAs, his cutter has been damaged less than his 4-seamer was last year, and his sinker has been damaged less than last year. On the other hand, his knuckle-curve and sweeper have both been damaged more than last year.
Next, let’s take a look at all the pitchers with similar repertoires to Schmidt’s. Table 3 shows the qualified 2023 right-handed starters who throw the same pitches as Schmidt at least 65% of the time, along with their expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) for the season. For reference, Schmidt’s xFIP is 4.19 this season.
Table 3: Pitchers most similar to Schmidt, their similarity scores and xFIPs
If Schmidt can adjust his pitch frequencies in the direction of the pitch frequencies of Logan Webb and Zach Eflin, and away from the pitch frequencies of Chris Bassitt and Dane Dunning, hitters should have a more difficult time against him.
I’ll filter out Bassitt and Dunning and focus on the pitch frequencies of the six most similar starters to Schmidt who have outperformed him this season. Let’s look at how these six right-handed starters in aggregate are attacking both right-handed and left-handed batters this season.
Table 4: A balanced attack against RHBs
Table 5: A balanced attack against LHBs
As evident from Table 4 and Table 5, the optimal approach certainly contains more changeups (CH) to LHBs than RHBs, and more sweepers (ST) and sliders (SL) to RHBs than LHBs. Moreover, off-speed and breaking pitches moving away from the batters are more effective. The optimal approach also contains more curveballs (CU), knuckle-curves (KC), and 4-seamers (FF) to LHBs than to RHBs. Since RHPs can’t easily exploit LHBs with horizontal pitch movement, the curveballs and knuckle-curves that have the greatest vertical drop and the 4-seamers that have the least vertical drop are useful in tandem, especially since they have the added deception of coming out of the same arm slot. Sinkers (SI) are effective against RHBs, as high velocity moving down and in can effectively generate weak contact, and cutters (FC) are effective against hitters on both sides.
I will group curveballs into the knuckle-curve category and sliders with sweepers together (based on similar velocity and break) when translating these pitch frequencies into a game theory optimal strategy for Schmidt.
Game Theory Optimal Pitch Frequency for Schmidt Against RHBs
Table 6: Game theory optimal (GTO) pitch frequency versus Schmidt’s current pitch frequency against RHBs
Against RHBs, Schmidt would benefit from throwing some changeups and reintroducing his 4-seamer, while reducing the number of sweepers he throws. The changeup travels on the same plane as his sinker and serves as protection for the pitch that he throws over 30% of the time. The 4-seamer can be useful at the top of the strike zone and up out of the strike zone, to diversify Schmidt’s attack.
Game Theory Optimal Pitch Frequency for Schmidt against LHBs
Table 7: Game theory optimal (GTO) pitch frequency versus Schmidt’s current pitch frequency against LHBs
Against LHBs, Schmidt needs to drastically increase his changeup usage, reduce his cutter usage, reintroduce his 4-seamer, and reduce his sweeper usage. The cutters and sweepers breaking in on lefties need to be very precise—if they are left over the plate, they are in the typical LHB’s wheelhouse, and if they are pulled too much to the glove side, they can end up hitting the batters. The changeup can be used to generate weak contact and early outs, and the 4-seamer can again allow Schmidt to diversify his approach by attacking the top of the zone and aiming for chases up out of the zone.
Data source: Statcast
