From '96 to Today: Unveiling the Most Efficient Scorers From the Field
In my previous basketball analysis, I looked into the optimal shot location in today’s NBA and identified the most and least valuable shooters from the field.
In this analysis, I am broadening my scope: I will examine all shots taken dating back to the start of the 1996 season, to determine which players would be the most efficient scorers from the field if they played in today’s NBA, to assess how shooting efficiency has improved over the years, and to evaluate shooters that were the most valuable when accounting for the league average efficiency in the year each shot was taken.
Table 1 lists the 30 most valuable shooters from the field since 1996 - relative to today’s average shooter - along with their points scored from the field, shots taken, shot efficiency, and Points Above Average (paa). For reference, today’s league average shot efficiency is 1.0762 points per shot (averaging the last 3+ seasons).
Table 1: The 30 most valuable shooters from the field since 1996 relative to today’s average shooter, along with their points scored from the field, shots taken, shot efficiency, and Points Above Average (paa). For reference, 1.07622 is today’s league average shot efficiency
The data highlights the clear edge that centers hold in shot efficiency, primarily due to their frequent dunks and a scarcity of inefficient shots attempted. Notably, Stephen Curry stands out as the most valuable non-center shooter. Additionally, Nikola Jokic has already amassed an impressive 883 paa by the age of 28, positioning himself to potentially lead this list by the conclusion of his career.
It's worth noting that former MVPs Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Steve Nash, and LeBron James all secure positions within the top 30 despite not playing as centers.
Looking at Table 2 below, former MVPs Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, and Russell Westbrook top the list as the least valuable shooters compared to today's average shooter. They are accompanied by former scoring champions Carmelo Anthony and Tracy McGrady. Does this mean that these players hurt their teams? Not necessarily. However, it indicates that their shot selection wouldn't prove as effective in today's NBA landscape.
Table 2: The 10 least valuable shooters from the field since 1996 relative to today’s average shooter, along with their points scored from the field, shots taken, shot efficiency, and Points Above Average (paa). For reference, 1.07622 is today’s league average shot efficiency
As depicted in Chart 1, there has been a consistent improvement in shot efficiency, starting at below 0.94 points per shot in 1996 and currently exceeding 1.09 points per shot in 2023.
By comparing the efficiency of each shot to the average efficiency for that specific year, we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the value each shooter has contributed to their team(s).
Chart 1: Shot efficiency improvement from 1996 to 2023
Shaquille O’Neal reigns supreme in peer-adjusted shooter value since 1996, worth an impressive 2866 Points Above Average, as evident from Table 3 below. LeBron James secures the second position, closely followed by Stephen Curry in third place. Occupying the fourth to eighth spots are Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Steve Nash, Ray Allen, and Kevin Durant. Hall of Famers Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, and Reggie Miller also secure positions within the top 30.
As evident from Table 4 below, Russell Westbrook and Allen Iverson remain atop the list of least valuable shooters since 1996, even when adjusting for league average shooting efficiency. Joining them in the top 5 are DeMar DeRozan, Ricky Rubio, and John Wall.
Table 3: The 30 most valuable shooters since 1996, with each shot being compared to the shot efficiency of the average shot taken in that same year
Table 4: The 10 least valuable shooters since 1996, with each shot being compared to the shot efficiency of the average shot taken in that same year
