How to Stop The Eagles Offense

NFL

Oct 13

The Philadelphia Eagles have been nothing short of remarkable in their last 25 games, boasting an impressive 21-4 record from the start of the last season, including three playoff encounters. The consistent Eagles’ offense averaged 28.1 points per game in the regular season last year and is averaging 28.2 points per game through five games in 2023.

So how can opposing defenses slow down the Eagles’ offense? In this analysis, I will break down the run/pass tendencies of the Eagles' offense, identify their situational strengths and weaknesses, and formulate a strategic approach to stifle their juggernaut attack.

Given the inherent differences in strategy in Redzone offense (when the offense is at or inside the opposing team's 20-yard line) due to the limited amount of field the offense has to work with and the defense has to defend, I will divide my analysis into two sections: one for Non-Redzone and one for Redzone situations.

How to Handle the Eagles’ in Non-Redzone Situations

1st and 10

Let’s start by studying the Eagles offense on 1st and 10, broken down in Table 1. The Eagles average 7.22 yards per pass play on 1st and 10 and 5.02 yards per run play. That extra 2.20 yards per pass play is more than enough to offset the 2.26% higher turnover rate on passing plays. Moreover, The Eagles add 0.105% of win probability per 1st and 10 passing play but lose 0.0662% of win probability per run play.

Hence, on 1st and 10, the opposing defense should force the Eagles to run the ball.

I will categorize the Eagles' second-down offensive situations into four distinct groups: 2nd and short (3 yards or fewer), 2nd and medium (4-7 yards), 2nd and long (8-12 yards), and 2nd and very long (13+ yards).

2nd and Short (3 yards or less)

Table 2: Eagles offensive yardage, fumble %, interception %, and win probability added in 2nd and short (3 or fewer yards) situations. No_play refers to a penalty. (Data: 80 plays total, 48 runs and 27 passes).

On 2nd and short, the Eagles add 0.241% to their win probability with each run play, whereas they incur a loss of 0.634% in win probability per pass play, as evident from Table 2.

Hence, on 2nd and short, the defense needs to force the Eagles into passing the ball. Although 2nd and short pass plays slightly outpace run plays in terms of yardage gained (5.74 to 5.48), an incomplete pass leads to a 3rd down situation and a sack can jeopardize the Eagles' drive.

2nd and Medium (4-7 yards)

The Eagles have proven dominant in 2nd and medium situations by consistently adding to their win probability with both passing and running plays. Their runs remain substantially more effective, contributing an impressive 0.283% to their win probability per play, while their pass plays provide a boost of 0.0769% per play, as evident from Table 3.

Hence, on 2nd and medium, force the Eagles to pass the ball.

2nd and Long (8-12 yards)

The Eagles continue their dominance in 2nd and long situations. Here, they increase their win probability by an average of 0.704% per play on pass plays and 0.612% per play on run plays.

Thus, on 2nd and long, force the Eagles into a running play and set up a 3rd down scenario.

2nd and Very Long (13+ yards)

As evident from Table 5, the Eagles encounter limited success when passing on 2nd and very long, experiencing a decline of 0.481% in win probability per pass play. However, their run plays provide a gain of 0.192% per play.

The preferred strategy in this scenario will therefore be to force the Eagles into passing the ball, while remaining vigilant for a draw play or a quarterback run.

I will categorize the Eagles' third-down offensive situations into three distinct groups: 3rd and short (3 or fewer yards), 3rd and medium (4-7 yards), and 3rd and long (8+ yards).

3rd and Short (3 yards or less)

Table 6: Eagles offensive yardage, fumble %, interception %, and win probability added in 3rd and short (3 or fewer yards) situations. No_play refers to a penalty. (Data: 94 plays total, 59 runs and 24 passes).

Once again, the Eagles have proven to be successful on 3rd and short situations. Passing plays result in a 0.179% increase in win probability per play, while running plays yield an impressive 1.22% increase.

Thus, the advisable strategy is to force the Eagles into passing plays on 3rd and short.

3rd and Medium (4-7 yards)

The Eagles excel in 3rd and medium situations, with pass attempts yielding a 1.86% increase in win probability and rush attempts contributing a 0.263% boost, as evident from Table 7.

Therefore, the defense needs to force the Eagles into a run play and set the stage for a 4th down scenario.

3rd and long (8+ yards)

The Eagles continue their dominance in 3rd and long situations, with a 0.740% increase in win probability per pass play and an extraordinary 2.71% gain per run play.

Hence, on 3rd and long, the recommended approach is to force the Eagles into a pass play, while keeping a watchful eye on a potential quarterback run.

I will categorize the Eagles' 4th down offensive situations into two distinct groups: 4th and short (less than 3 yards) and 4th and medium (3-7 yards).

4th and Short (less than 3 yards)

Table 9: Eagles offensive yardage, fumble %, interception %, and win probability added in 4th and short (fewer than 3 yards) situations. No_play refers to a penalty. (Data: 27 plays total, 13 runs and 3 passes).

On 4th and short, the Eagles achieve a game-changing 2.63% increase in win probability per run, maintaining an average gain of 2.23 yards per carry. The bulk of these runs are the nearly unstoppable rugby-style quarterback sneaks. However, the Eagles experience a significant loss of 4.41% in win probability per pass play.

To counter their effectiveness, stuff their run attempts on 4th and short and prioritize stopping the quarterback sneak.

4th and Medium (3-7 yards)

The Eagles have excelled in converting on 4th and medium, securing a substantial 1.99% increase in win probability per pass play and an impressive 11.7% increase per run play.

Here, the recommended approach is to force the Eagles into a pass play, and be mindful of a potential quarterback run.

Summarizing Optimal Strategies Against The Eagles in Non-Redzone Situations

*Table11: A summary of the optimal strategy against the Eagles’ offense in each Non-Redzone situation, along with the added win probability per play by forcing the Eagles to pass/run.*

How to Handle the Eagles’ in the Redzone

Inside the Redzone, the defense should force the Eagles into pass plays in every situation, except for 2nd and medium, where the defense should force the run. The Eagles' exceptional performance, both in passing and running (including QB runs), on 4th and medium, has played a pivotal role in their success over the past 25 games.

*Table12: A summary of the optimal Redzone strategy against the Eagles’ offense in each situation, along with the added win probability per play by forcing the Eagles to pass/run.*

Christina Væting Nergård