Between 2022 and 2023, the league's average wOBA jumped from 0.310 to 0.318 following the implementation of the pitch clock, the ban of the overshift, and the increase in base size. These adjustments not only enhanced the scoring dynamics but also resulted in a reduction of game duration by 24 minutes per game, bringing game time down to 2 hours and 40 minutes, on average.

Despite total attendance nearly rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, as evident from Figure 1 below, it remains considerably below the figures seen in the mid to late 2000s. This trend is primarily attributed to the current lower run-scoring levels in baseball.

In this post, I’ll take a look at the factors that have historically driven change in the league’s run scoring environment, and discuss future league changes that can increase both run scoring and attendance.

Photo Credit: Otto Greule Jr.

Watching the MLB playoffs this year, I started to think about identifying hitters that have the pitch recognition and bat-to-ball skills to make positive contributions against the league’s best pitching.

To investigate this, I’ve looked at pitch location, broken down by Heart, Shadow, Chase and Waste, as defined by Baseball Savant.

Photo Credit: The Daytona Beach News-Journal

The MLB starting pitching rotation has been evolving for more than a century: We’ve seen the 3-man rotation, the 4-man rotation, the 5-man rotation, and now even some 6-man rotations.

However, the optimal rotation is the 5.5-man rotation. In this analysis, I’ll explain why.

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While looking at the nearly 1200 sac flies hit in 2023, I noticed an interesting paradox: The average sacrifice fly reduced the offensive team’s expected runs scored in the inning by 0.284 runs. At the same time, it increased the offensive team’s win probability by 1%.

Sac flies are a perfect example of situational hitting in baseball: while they might hurt the offense when trailing by multiple runs in the late innings, they can become invaluable in tied games, one-run contests late in the game, or when the offense is holding a lead. In these situations, sac flies serve as a great way to elevate the batting team's win probability.

In this analysis I’ll break down the characteristics of pitches that batters should look for when aiming to hit a sac fly, and the characteristics of pitches that pitchers and catchers should avoid when trying to prevent a sac fly.

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top free agent starting pitcher this offseason, coming off three straight Sawamura Award seasons (top starting pitcher) and three straight Pacific League MVPs in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB).

However, history shows that Japanese starting pitchers often struggle to replicate their performances upon transitioning to Major League Baseball (MLB). The MLB's typical five-day rotation allows for less recovery time between starts compared to the NPB's once-a-week rotation. In addition, there is a difference in the hitting approach between the MLB and the NPB, with the MLB favoring power hitting over contact. These discrepancies present a significant challenge for Japanese pitchers making the switch to the MLB.

In this analysis, I look into the eleven starters who have made the journey from the NPB to the MLB to attempt to answer how Yamamoto will perform in his new ballclub.

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Gerrit Cole has finally done it. After two second place finishes, two fourth place finishes and one fifth place finish, the Yankee ace has locked down his first Cy Young award. Cole led American league pitchers in W-L%, ERA, games started, shutouts, innings pitched, ERA+, WHIP, hits/9, and bWAR. He is certainly deserving of the award, winning unanimously.

Cole’s bWAR in 2023 is even higher than his dominant 2019 season with the Astros in which he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and led the league with 326 strikeouts, narrowly losing to teammate Justin Verlander in the Cy Young voting.

So why this year? How did he finally get there?

Photo Credit: NJ.com

In the world of baseball, both pitchers and batters are constantly strategizing to gain an edge. Pitchers carefully choose their pitches and arm angles based on the situation, while batters make subtle adjustments in their stances or even switch to lighter bats against particular pitchers.

But are batters fully utilizing the spectrum of swing varieties to maximize their performance?

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports