When Will We See a 70-yard Field Goal in the NFL?

Photo Credit: USA TODAY

Over the last 24 years, NFL kickers have notably enhanced their strength and accuracy. Justin Tucker's 66-yard field goal in 2021 established a new NFL record. But when will we see a 70-yard field goal?

In this post, I will analyze the 25,000 field goal attempts since 2000 to illustrate how the kicking game has developed and to predict when we will see that 70-yard field goal. The 2023 data incorporates all NFL games of this season through Week 16.

Figure 1 below shows the Field Goal Make Rate, that is, the number of field goal makes divided by the number of field goal attempts from that distance in that year, excluding blocked field goals.

Figure 1: Field Goal Make Rate grouped by Year and Distance

There are three notable trends from Figure 1:

• Over time, kickers have been able to convert field goals at a higher rate from every attempted distance between 19 and 66 yards.

• There are fewer missed kicks over time, as analytics have helped the league understand the risk/reward of attempting a low probability kick.

• Since 2017, teams have not been attempting 18 yard field goals. Instead, they have been going for 4th and goal from the 1 yard line.

To provide perspective, a 50-yard field goal in 2000 can be likened in difficulty to a 55-yard attempt in 2013 and a 58-yard kick in 2023.

Figure 2 below illustrates the longest made field goal per season, from 2000 to today.

Figure 2: Longest Field Goal Make each season along with a linear fit

From Figure 2, we can see that kicking progression over the past 24 years has been somewhat linear, with the maximum field goal make distance increasing by 1/3 of a yard per year, on average. If the linear progression continues, we can expect about one 70-yard field goal to be hit per season in 19 years, by 2042.

With five outlier kicks over a 24 season span, we can expect about one outlier kick every five seasons going forward. The outlier kick is typically three yards further than the expected maximum field goal make of that year. Therefore, we expect to see the first successful 70-yard field goal between 2029 and 2034.

It is also likely that the first successful 70-yard field goal is the last play of the first half or the last play of regulation.