Gerrit Cole has finally done it. After two second place finishes, two fourth place finishes and one fifth place finish, the Yankee ace has locked down his first Cy Young award. Cole led American league pitchers in W-L%, ERA, games started, shutouts, innings pitched, ERA+, WHIP, hits/9, and bWAR. He is certainly deserving of the award, winning unanimously.

Cole’s bWAR in 2023 is even higher than his dominant 2019 season with the Astros in which he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and led the league with 326 strikeouts, narrowly losing to teammate Justin Verlander in the Cy Young voting.

So why this year? How did he finally get there?

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In the world of baseball, both pitchers and batters are constantly strategizing to gain an edge. Pitchers carefully choose their pitches and arm angles based on the situation, while batters make subtle adjustments in their stances or even switch to lighter bats against particular pitchers.

But are batters fully utilizing the spectrum of swing varieties to maximize their performance?

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Game 1 of a playoff series; matchup of aces, and an electric pitchers’ duel coming up. Whether it's a three-game Wild Card Series, five-game Division Series, or seven-game Championship or World Series, seizing victory in Game 1 and exerting pressure on your opponent is vital.

It seems optimal to have your ace take the mound for that start, granting your team the flexibility to bring him back earlier in the series, and perhaps even from the bullpen in a critical do-or-die scenario. However, can there be exceptions to this conventional philosophy? If Game 1 entails facing off against an elite pitcher such as Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, or Jacob DeGrom, could it be wiser to hold your ace for Game 2 to enhance your overall series prospects?

In this analysis, I will explore how a team can alternatively structure its playoff pitching rotation to maximize its chance of winning the series.

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A recent post by Tom Tango about platoon splits by pitch type revealed that changeups and curveballs are the two pitches with the most significant reverse platoon advantage - that is, right-handed pitcher changeups and curveballs are more effective against left-handed batters, and left-handed pitcher changeups and curveballs are more effective against right-handed batters. Changeups tail to the arm side and away from batters on the opposite side of the pitcher, so a reverse platoon advantage there is not surprising.

But why are curveballs more effective against batters with the opposite handedness of the pitcher? And how can pitchers use that to optimize their execution of curveballs?

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My previous analysis (Who Wants the Robo-Ump? And Who Doesn’t..) focused on which batters, pitchers, and catchers that will be most impacted by having a robot umpire - the automated strike zone (ABS) set to be introduced into the MLB some time in the next few years.

But how will pitch types and pitch locations be impacted by the ABS?

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The Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS), also referred to as “the robot umpire”, is coming to Major League Baseball within the next few years. ABS will certainly have an impact on catchers, who are currently credited or discredited for Framing Runs based on their ability to pull borderline pitches into the strike zone and hold them for the umpire to believe they were strikes.

But how will ABS impact batters and pitchers? Will superstars no longer get superstar treatment on borderline calls? And who will ABS benefit more - pitchers or hitters?

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Yankees pitcher Clarke Schmidt had a successful rookie season in 2022 as a reliever, posting a 3.12 earned run average (ERA) over 57.2 innings pitched. In 2023, when forced into the starting rotation due to injuries to Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas, Schmidt struggled at first—his ERA at the end of April was 6.84. However, since the start of May, Schmidt has adjusted his pitch frequencies and has seen his ERA drop steadily to 4.54. After ace Gerrit Cole, Schmidt has been the most consistent starting pitcher for the Yankees in the second half of the season.

Watching Schmidt this season has me wondering how he can further realize his potential. What is the game theory optimal pitch distribution that he should use?

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After the Yankees’ 3-1 win over the Mariners on June 20th, Harrison Bader’s OPS was at a more than respectable .801, through 98 PAs and 407 pitches seen. However, as of Aug 28th, Bader’s OPS is down to .649. There’s no doubt that the former NL Gold Glove award winner has had a difficult stretch over the past 204 PAs and 718 pitches seen. In fact, Bader’s pitches per plate appearance dropped from 4.15 in the first stretch to 3.52 in the latter stretch. On August 29th, the Yankees placed Bader on waivers.

So what happened to Bader this season? And how can he turn his performance around? To answer this, let’s take a deep look into the numbers.

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