What Went Wrong with Bader?

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Noah K. Murray

After the Yankees’ 3-1 win over the Mariners on June 20th, Harrison Bader’s OPS was at a more than respectable .801, through 98 PAs and 407 pitches seen. However, as of Aug 28th, Bader’s OPS is down to .649. There’s no doubt that the former NL Gold Glove award winner has had a difficult stretch over the past 204 PAs and 718 pitches seen. In fact, Bader’s pitches per plate appearance dropped from 4.15 in the first stretch to 3.52 in the latter stretch. On August 29th, the Yankees placed Bader on waivers.

So what happened to Bader this season? And how can he turn his performance around? To answer this, let’s take a deep look into the numbers*. For ease of reference, we will split the season into two parts: Part 1, ending with the June 20th win, and Part 2, beginning on June 21st.

Let’s start by analyzing Bader’s splits against right-handed pitchers (RHPs) and left-handed pitchers (LHPs). In Part 1, Bader had an expected weighed on-base average (xWOBA) of .428 (elite; 112 points above average) against LHPs and an xWOBA of .271 (45 points below average) against RHPs. In Part 2, Bader’s xWOBA against LHPs dropped to .367 (still 51 points above average) and his xWOBA against RHPs dropped to .251 (65 points below average). Evidently, Bader has been a consistently above average hitter against LHPs and a below average hitter against RHPs this season.

So what are RHPs pitchers doing to neutralize him? 

Let’s look at this by combining the data from Part 1 and Part 2 and breaking it down based on pitch type (Table 1). For reference, Bader’s xWOBA against RHPs in 2023 is .259, compared to the league average of .316. 

Table 1: Bader’s pitch breakdown against RHPs. pfx_x is horizontal break in feet. A positive pfx_x signifies break from right to left (away from Bader) and a negative pfx_x signifies break from left to right (towards Bader). SV = Slurve, FS = Splitter, CH = Changeup, KC = Knuckle Curve, ST = Sweeper, CU = Curveball, SL = Slider, FC = Cutter, SI = Sinker, FF = 4-seamer. 

As evident from the data, Bader is able to produce against 4-seamers (FF) and sinkers (SI) against RHPs. However, he has struggled against off-speed pitches and pitches breaking away from him.

Now, let’s look at Bader’s performance based on pitch location against RHPs, illustrated in the heatmap of Figure 1.

Figure 1: Bader’s performance based on pitch location against RHPs

Here, it becomes clear that RHPs are owning the down and away region inside the strike zone against Bader. Combining this with Bader’s higher than average chase rate of 32% on balls down and away (illustrated in Figure 2 Swing % By Zone), RHPs seem to have a clear-cut strategy against him: They are expanding down and away with breaking balls, knowing that even if they miss over the lower and outer portion of the plate, Bader is unable to do much damage. Figure 2 Total Pitches clearly shows that this strategy has been steadily employed.

Figure 2:  Total pitches per zone and Bader’s associated swing percentage

How Can Bader Adjust and Turn his Performance Around?

Being one of the best defenders in the league and a very solid producer against LHPs, Bader has a very bright future if he can adjust to how RHPs are attacking him. My recommendation for him is to move closer to home plate against RHPs. This move will allow him to increase his production against pitches on the outer half of the plate. 

When RHPs realize that he’s able to damage pitches that they intend to throw outside the zone, but leave over the outside part of the plate, they will readjust in two ways: 1) they will throw their breaking balls even further outside, and 2) they will pitch him inside more. Bader can then continue to do damage on pitches on the inside part of the plate, which he’s already proven more than capable of. Additionally, if Bader is able to notice that the outside breaking balls that RHPs are throwing him are starting off even further outside, and reduce his chase rate on them, he can increase the number of pitches he sees per plate appearance and improve his walk rate.

 *Data source: Statcast