Volpe’s Hitting Under the Microscope
Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY
There is no doubt that Yankees’ top prospect Anthony Volpe is having an exciting rookie season. On August 31st, he became the 15th rookie and first Yankees rookie to have 20 homeruns and 20 steals in a season - and the first Yankees shortstop to do so since Derek Jeter in 2004. Volpe has played an above average shortstop, ranking 23rd among shortstops in Outs Above Average (OAA) with +3 and 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with +14. An even more encouraging sign is the 22-year-old’s ability to adjust at the plate. After an extended slump in May in which Volpe posted -6.5 wRAA (batting runs above average), Volpe closed his stance and improved to a +1.1 wRAA for the months of June, July, and August combined.
However, watching Volpe this season made me aware that his performance is more dependent on the count he is in compared to the average hitter. Let’s dig into the numbers and see how he can improve this.
Breaking Down Volpe’s 2-Strike Performance
Volpe produces well above league average with zero strikes, at league average with one strike, but a significant 30 points of xWOBA below league average with two strikes, as depicted in Table 1.
Table 1: Volpe’s xWOBA and 2023 MLB average xWOBA grouped by the number of strikes.
If you’re wondering how important hitting is with two strikes, take a look at these numbers: 53.5% of league plate appearances (PAs) are going to two strikes, and Volpe has gone to two strikes in 56% of his plate appearances this season. To put 30 points of xWOBA below league average into perspective: Over the course of a standard 600 PA season, 30 points of xWOBA on the approximately 330 PAs that go to two strikes is worth 8.25 wRAA.
Evidently, making adjustments to his two-strike hitting is a potential area of improvement for Volpe. Just by matching the league-average two-strike production, Volpe will be able to increase his offensive value tremendously.
Volpe’s xWOBACON (xWOBA of ABs that result in him making contact) is .391, well above the league average xWOBACON of .369. This is a testament to his ability to generate bat speed and hit the ball in the air. Batting with two strikes, Volpe’s xWOBACON drops 67 points to .324, whereas the league average xWOBACON only drops 19 points to .350. Judging by the numbers, Volpe’s two-strike swing approach may be sacrificing too much power and launch compared to the average hitter’s approach.
Let’s look even deeper into how Volpe is performing relative to the league in two-strike counts to address where he has the most potential for improvement.
Table 2: Volpe’s xWOBA vs. 2023 MLB average xWOBA, and Volpe’s xWOBACON vs. 2023 MLB average xWOBACON, grouped by two-strike counts
As seen in Table 2, Volpe is a whopping 96 points below league average xWOBA in 2-2 counts. It certainly seems that he is indeed cutting down on his swing too much in this scenario just to make contact. Despite a small sample size of 157 pitches faced in 2-2 counts and 68 ABs ending in 2-2 counts, Volpe’s xWOBACON of .243 is particularly glaring. 2-2 certainly is a pitcher’s count, evidenced by the league-wide xWOBA of .197, but it may not be as good of a pitcher’s count as Volpe is giving it credit.
How Volpe Can Improve His 2-Strike Approach
My recommendation to Volpe is to not cut down on his swing so drastically on 2-2 counts.
As he logs more ABs at the major league level and continues to improve his pitch recognition, Volpe will be able to reduce his chase rate in 0-2 and 1-2 counts and find himself in more 2-2 and 3-2 counts. If he focuses on doing damage at the plate in the 2-2 counts rather than cutting down his swing too much just to make contact, he will be able to grab some low-hanging fruit and at least catch up to the league average two-strike production level. At that level, he will undoubtedly be a more dangerous hitter.
