Using Predictive wOBA To Predict 2024 Batting Performance

Photo Credit: Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

In a previous post, I proved via correlation that Predictive wOBA (including all batted balls, walks, strikeouts, and hit-by-pitches), is better at predicting Next Season wOBA than both wOBA and xwOBA. I also showed how a mean-regression technique, resulting in Modified Predictive wOBA, strengthened the model’s predictive power even further.

In this post, I’ll use Modified Predictive wOBA to project performances in the coming baseball season and compare them to Steamer’s 2024 projections.

Table 1 below shows the top 30 projected hitters in 2024 according to Modified Predictive wOBA. Ronald Acuna is the only batter projected to have a wOBA above .400 in 2024. He is followed by Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Mookie Betts in the top five.

Table 1: Top 30 projected hitters in 2024 using Modified Predictive wOBA

The Dodgers have five hitters in the top 30 (Betts, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Max Muncy); the Braves have four hitters in the top 30 (Acuna, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Marcell Ozuna); the Yankees have three hitters in the top 30 (Soto, Judge, and Gleyber Torres), and the Astros have three hitters in the top 30 (Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman). Jorge Soler, ranking 20th, is still a free agent.

Table 2 below lists the ten batters (out of Predictive wOBA’s top 100) that Streamer over-projects relative to Predicted wOBA. As evident from the table, Predictive wOBA is not as favorable to Soto, Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Trout as Steamer is. Steamer’s aging curve (approximated in Figure 1 below) is a factor here as the top three hitters in Table 2 are still young and expected to improve over the next few seasons.

Table 2: The 10 batters (out of the top 100) that Steamer over-projects relative to Predictive wOBA

Figure 1: Fangraph’s aging curve

Table 3 showcases the 30 batters that Steamer under-projects relative to Predictive wOBA.

Table 3: The 30 batters (out of the top 100) that Steamer under-projects relative to Predictive wOBA

Randall Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Murphy, Andrew McCutchen, and Matt Chapman top the list of the batters who are projected more favorably in 2024 using Predictive wOBA.

Again, some older hitters are present in this list, likely due to Steamer’s use of the aging curve. Of the younger hitters, Jake Burger, Luis Garcia, Torres, and Alec Bohm stand out and could be primed for significantly more productive seasons than what Steamer projects.