How to Stop The Celtics?

*Photo Credit: Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images*

The Boston Celtics are off to an incredible start. They are 18-0 at home, with the best record in the NBA. According to the Simple Rating System, which takes into account both point differential and strength of schedule, the Celtics are the best basketball team since the 2016-17 Warriors, who had each of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green in their primes.

The Celtics have an Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) of 57.05% and are averaging 1.141 points per shot attempt. They are fifth in points scored, averaging 121.3 ppg. Their standout offensive categories are 3-point attempts, in which they are first in the league, and two-point field goal percentage (2P%), where they are third in the league. The Celtics operate around shooting a ton of threes at a well above average 3-point percentage (3P%) of 37.7%. They shoot the fewest twos in the NBA, but convert them into baskets extremely efficiently, with a 57.5% 2P%.

Based on those topline numbers, the Celtics don’t have any glaring weaknesses. In this analysis, I will look at the team on an individual player level, to find weaknesses that defenses can exploit to beat the Celtics.

Below are the shot charts of the eight Celtics players who average at least five field goal attempts per game, along with my analyses.

Jrue Holiday

Holiday has a 2P% of 49.5% and a 3P% of 40.6%.

Strategy: Judging by the numbers above, defenses want to force Holiday to take twos, at 0.99 points per shot attempt, and not let him take threes at 1.218 points per shot attempt. While forcing Holiday to take more twos, defenses also need to push the ambidextrous point guard to his right when he drives to the basket. Holiday is much more comfortable finishing when driving to his left, as circled in the shot chart in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Jrue Holiday shot chart for 2023-24

Jaylen Brown

Brown has a 2P% of 56.1%, worth 1.122 points per shot, and a 3P% of 36%, worth 1.08 points per shot.

Strategy: Since Brown’s shots are less valuable than the Celtics’ average shot of 1.141 points, defenses want to let him shoot, and they prefer to have him shoot threes rather than twos.

Jayson Tatum

Tatum has a 2P% of 56.5%, worth 1.13 points per shot, and a 3P% of 37.4%, worth 1.122 points per shot. Since Tatum’s shots are also slightly less valuable than the Celtics’ average shot, defenses should be okay to let Tatum shoot. That being said, his remarkable efficiency right at the basket is circled in Figure 3.

Strategy: Defenses should not let Tatum get this close to the basket as he is deadly at the rim. A strong and athletic defender is required on him at all times, preferably one with shot blocking capability.

Figure 3: Jayson Tatum shot chart for 2023-24

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis has a 2P% of 67.2%, worth 1.344 points per shot, and a 3P% of 32.6%, worth 0.978 points per shot.

Strategy: From the numbers, it’s pretty clear that defenses need to force Porzingis to shoot threes and not allow him to take short-range or mid-range uncontested twos. As annotated in Figure 4, Porzingis prefers to be on the right side of the court when shooting. Force him to the left and get him out of his comfort zone.

Figure 4: Kristaps Porzingis shot chart for 2023-24

Sam Hauser

Hauser has a 2P% of 64.7%, worth 1.294 points per shot, and a 3P% of 41.6%, worth 1.248 points per shot. He leads the Celtics’ top eight shooters in eFG% at 62.7%. Hauser shoots 5.6 threes per game and just 0.9 twos, so he is mostly camping out at the 3-point line, and occasionally cuts in to the basket when his defender gets too close to him.

Strategy: Don’t let Hauser shoot. Defenders should not be over-helping off of Hauser, leaving him open for a three. When he gets the ball behind the arc, he should be crowded immediately. Defenders down-low should be prepared to help on his back cuts.

Derrick White

White has a 2P% of 56.2%, worth 1.124 points per shot, and a 3P% of 40.7%, worth 1.221 points per shot.

Strategy: Force White to take mid-range twos, don’t let him take threes, and don’t let him finish at the rim.

Payton Pritchard

Pritchard has a 2P% of 49.4%, worth 0.988 points per shot, and a 3P% of 37.9%, worth 1.137 points per shot.

Strategy: Let Pritchard shoot, preferably twos. As illustrated by the circle in Figure 7, he seems more comfortable finishing at the rim on the left side, so force him to his right.

Figure 7: Payton Pritchard shot chart for 2023-24

Al Horford

Horford has a 2P% of 65.2%, worth 1.304 points per shot, and a 3P% of 39.7%, worth 1.191 points per shot. His eFG% is second among Boston’s top eight shooters, at 61.5%.

Strategy: Don’t let Horford shoot, with one exception: the corner three. Not a pure shooter for most of his career, Horford shot fewer than one three per game for his first eight seasons in the NBA before adjusting to the modern game. That adjustment has translated well to shooting from positions on the court that he’s more familiar with, but not to the corners.

Figure 8: Al Horford shot chart for 2023-24

Some Additional Strategy Remarks

Free Throws: In late game situations in which opponents need to send the Celtics to the foul line, Pritchard is the number one target, averaging 65% from FT. Jaylen Brown, a 74.4% free throw shooter, is the second target. Derrick White is shooting 90% from the line, so if he gets the ball, it may be wise to trap and force a timeout, pass, or turnover.

Rebounding: The Celtics are the number one ranked defensive rebounding team in the league. With the exception of elite offensive rebounders, opponents should aim to get a head start in transition defense against the Celtics after their shot goes up.