The Value of LeBron, Durant, and Curry - The US Olympic Trio
Photo Credit: Mark J. Terrill/LAPRESSE
The USA men’s basketball team took gold in Paris after an epic comeback win against Serbia in the semifinals and a nail-biter against host France in the final. The team was led by the legendary NBA trio of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry. In this analysis, I’ll take a look at the value that these three superstars have added to their NBA teams over their careers.
I’ll useValue over Replacement Player (VORP), which leverages each player's Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to quantify how many points each player contributes per 100 possessions compared to a replacement-level player.
Figure 1 below illustrates the VORP for James, Durant and Curry, and the NBA VORP leader, for each season since 2003.
Figure 1: Value over Replacement Player (VORP) for LeBron, Durant, Curry, and the NBA leader for each season since 2003
As shown in the graph, Kevin Garnett led the NBA in VORP in 2003, the year that LeBron was drafted first overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers. In his rookie year, LeBron had a VORP of 2.9, the lowest of any season in his career. In 2004, Garnett led the NBA in VORP once again, but LeBron closed the gap almost entirely, being only a small fraction of a point per 100 possessions less valuable than Garnett.
From 2005 to 2011, LeBron led the NBA in VORP for eight consecutive seasons - a streak that surpassed Michael Jordan’s seven-season run from 1986 to 1992 and stands as the longest since VORP tracking began in 1974.
However, Kevin Durant ended LeBron's streak during his MVP season in 2013, James Harden followed by claiming the VORP title in 2014. Stephen Curry then led the NBA in VORP in 2015, during the second of his back-to-back MVP campaigns.
In 2016, Russell Westbrook topped the NBA in VORP and LeBron reclaimed the VORP title one final time in 2017. James Harden then secured back-to-back VORP crowns in 2018 and 2019. Since then, Serbian superstar Nikola Jokic has led the league in VORP for four consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2023, solidifying his place among the NBA's elite.
Team USA’s big three has seen an age-related decline in production from 2018 to 2023, maintaining VORPs in the 4-6 range, in comparison to the 8-10 VORP range in which they spent most of their careers. We’ve had the privilege of witnessing a trio that, over the past 21 years, has boasted the NBA's best player for more than half of those seasons (11)
Looking ahead, I’m intrigued to see if Jokic can sustain his elite level of play and join LeBron and Jordan in the conversation of all-time greats. I'm also eager to see which rising superstars will take the torch from LeBron, Durant, and Curry as Team USA aims to defend its title in Los Angeles.
