Should Clay Holmes Be the Yankees Closer?
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Adam Hunger
Yankees right-hander Clay Holmes has had a roller-coaster season. After nailing down the save in Sunday’s game against Texas, Holmes has 25 saves and is tied with Josh Hader of the Astros and Robert Suarez of the Padres for 4th in the MLB. Holmes, however, leads MLB with 9 blown saves. The next highest number of blown saves by one of MLB’s top closers is just 4, by the Nationals Kyle Finnegan.
Should Holmes be the Yankees closer? In this analysis, I'll examine Holmes' distribution of runs allowed, compare it to the league average, and assess whether he is well-suited for the closer role.
Over 49 games this season, Holmes has been allowing an average of 0.449 runs per game, with his outings ranging from 0.1 to 2 innings pitched. To make a fair comparison, I analyzed all the relief appearances from Saturday’s games (8/10/24) that spanned the same range of innings, totaling 87 outings. Across the rest of the league, pitchers in similar situations are allowing an average of 0.973 runs per game—more than double Holmes' rate—highlighting his status as an above-average reliever.
However, where it gets interesting is Holmes’ consistency. His standard deviation in runs allowed per game is 0.959, resulting in a coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by the mean) of 2.14. For the rest of the league, the standard deviation is 1.53 runs, with a coefficient of variation of 1.57. This means Holmes’ variability in performance is 36% higher than the league average, indicating a greater fluctuation in his outings. Essentially, Holmes often oscillates between being dominant—allowing no runs—and struggling with command of his sinker and slider, leading to hard contact and walks.
How can the Yankees maximize Holmes' dominant performances while minimizing the risk of his struggles in high-leverage situations? A strategic shift in his role could be the answer. Holmes could be utilized as a 7th-inning reliever, where he can pitch two innings when he's in top form, setting the stage for a different closer in the 9th. On days when his command is off, Holmes could be limited to the minimum three batters, allowing the Yankees to bring in another high-leverage reliever to finish the job. This approach would enable the team to capitalize on his strengths while mitigating potential downsides in critical moments.
