On Two-Point Conversion Attempts, Should NFL Teams Run or Pass More?
Photo Credit: NFL
There have been 2319 two-point conversion attempts over the past 26 NFL seasons (including playoffs), equating to about one two-point attempt in every three games. What is the optimal run/pass distribution in these situations? In this analysis, I’ll take a look at the league’s run/pass frequency and two-point success rate by play type to determine whether the league has the appropriate run/pass ratio on these often pivotal plays.
Converted Two-Point Plays
Table 1: Run/Pass breakdown of converted two-point plays
Failed Two-Point Plays
Table 2: Run/Pass breakdown of failed two-point plays
Conversion Statistics
Table 3: Two-point conversion statistics (1999 though 2024)
Conclusion
The league is passing on 71.9% of two-point plays and running on just 28.1%. Such a skewed ratio makes defending two-point plays easy. The overall conversion rate is 46.7%, but the conversion rate on pass plays is a meager 43.4% compared to the 54.9% conversion rate on run plays.
Clearly the league needs to be running the ball more on two-point attempts. The numbers suggest that offenses may be significantly more effective if they balance the two-point run/pass ratio closer to 50/50 rather than passing so frequently in these plays.
