How To Stop Saquon Barkley??
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Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is having one of the best rushing seasons in NFL history. He had the 14th most rushing yards per game in NFL history with 125.3 and the 4th most this century, trailing only Adrian Peterson (131.1 in 2012), Derrick Henry (126.7 in 2020), and Chris Johnson (125.4 in 2009).
How can the Chiefs stop Saquon in the Super Bowl? In this analysis I’ll take a look at Barkley’s rushing patterns to see how the Chiefs should plan against him.
Rush Location
As evident from Table 1a and Table 1b below, Saquon runs the ball to the outside far more often than the league does on average. He’s an explosive player and the Eagles look to get him in space to create chunk plays.
Tables 1a and Table 1b: Barkley’s rush location distribution relative to league average
The Chiefs must ensure that they have secure tacklers on the outside, squashing Barkley’s chance at a big play and forcing him to run it up the gut.
At Which Down and Distance Combinations is Barkely most Dangerous?
As evident from Table 2 below, Barkley has a rush% above 20% for all 1st down plays, all 2nd down plays with 4 or fewer yards to go, and 3rd and 2. His rush% peaks at 35.7% on 2nd and 3. The Eagles rarely hand the ball to him on 2nd down between 8 and 15 yards to go, 3rd and 5+, and 4th down.
In terms of effectiveness, Barkley’s EPA/rush and WPA/rush are highest on 2nd down between 3 and 9 yards to go and 3rd down between 2 and 6 yards to go.
The Chiefs need to prioritize stopping Barkley on all 1st down plays, 2nd and medium, and 3rd and medium. They should shift their focus to the passing game on 2nd and long, 3rd and long, and 4th down, while expecting the tush push on short yardage plays.
Table 2: Barkley Rush%, EPA, and WPA for each down and distance combination in which the Eagles had at least 10 plays in 2024
