Measuring Aaron Judge’s True Offensive Value
Photo Credit: AP Photo/LM Otero
What are some of the hidden ways in which a superstar hitter helps his team?
The batter in front of him sees better pitches to hit, since opposing pitchers would much rather face him with the bases empty.
The batter two spots before him, or even three spots before him, may see better pitches to hit as well.
The batters behind him are up to bat more frequently with men on base, forcing pitchers into the stretch as opposed to their more natural windups.
Opposing analytics teams, coaching staffs, pitchers, and catchers spend a disproportionately large percentage of their time and resources preparing to face him. And for good reason.
This analysis will examine the Yankees' run production in games featuring Aaron Judge and contrast it with their run production when Judge is absent, aiming to quantify the “hidden” offensive contributions that Judge brings to the team.
Comparing his actual offensive value to his oWAR
Over the past two seasons, Judge has played a total of 263 games and missed a total of 61 games. With Judge, the Yankees have scored 4.72 runs/game and without him they have scored 3.92 runs/game, so Judge’s presence in the Yankees lineup boosts their offense by 0.80 runs/game.
The additional 0.80 runs/game over Judge’s 263 games played resulted in 211 extra runs for the Yankees and therefore 21.1 extra wins for the Yankees relative to their performance with Judge’s replacement.
Since Judge’s oWAR (offensive wins above replacement) over the past two seasons is 15.2, we can see that the impact of his presence in the lineup is significantly greater (an extra 5.9 wins over 263 games) than his offensive statistics, which are used to calculate his oWAR.
Taking “hidden” contributions into account while looking at 2024 projections
ZiPS projects Judge to play in 128 games in the 2024 season, pricing in a high likelihood that the 6’7 282 lbs outfielder spends some time on the IL. Over 128 games they project Judge to be worth 5.8 WAR based on his statistics. If we prorate and add Judge’s hidden value, however, the Yankees captain is in line to be worth 8.7 wins to his team in 2024.
