How Can Hovland Improve His Game?

Photo Credit: Matt York/AP/NTB

Norwegian golfer Viktor Hovland had his breakout season last year, clinching victories at the Memorial Tournament, the BMW Championship, and the Tour Championship, while also playing a pivotal role in the European team's triumph at the Ryder Cup. Where should he improve his game to make a run at the prestigious title of the PGA Tour’s top golfer?

In my first Paraball golf analysis, I’ll take a look at how Hovland’s game has progressed through the lens of strokes gained - which groups each shot into one of four categories (Approach the Green, Off the Tee, Around the Green, and Putting) and compares the result to the tour average, in order to determine where he must continue to progress.

First, let’s look at the comparative analyses of Hovland (currently ranked 4th on the tour), versus top ranked Scottie Scheffler and number two ranked Rory McIlroy. Figure 1 shows how these players compared for the 2021-2022 season, whereas Figure 2 illustrates the comparison for the 2022-2023 season.

Figure 1: Pgatour.com comparative analysis of Hovland, Scheffler, and McIlroy for the 2021-2022 season.

Two seasons ago, Hovland was on par with the tour’s top two golfers in his approach shots, putting, and off the tee. However, he struggled mightily in his chipping and pitching around the green, ranking 191st on the tour and costing him an extra 0.651 shots per round.

Figure 2: Pgatour.com comparative analysis of Hovland, Scheffler, and McIlroy for the 2022-2023 season.

Last year, Hovland kept pace with the top golfers in his approach shots, putting, and off the tee, while gaining ground overall by improving his performance around the green.

Table 1 and Table 2 below show strokes gained for each golfer for each of the four shot categories for 2021-22 and 2022-23, respectively. Table 3 details shot improvement from 2021-22 to 2022-23.

Table 1: 2021-22 strokes gained (measured in shots per round) for each golfer.

Hovland’s struggle in chipping and pitching around the green sticks out in Table 1. This was holding him back from being one of the best in the world two years ago.

Table 2: 2022-23 strokes gained (measured in shots per round) for each golfer.

Hovland improved his performance around the green last year, but his strokes gained around the green is still very close to tour average, and his around the green performance is still the weak spot in his game. If he can continue to improve here, Hovland will quickly close the gap between him and Scheffler and McIlroy.

Table 3: Improvement in strokes gained (measured in shots per round) for each golfer from 2021-22 to 2022-23.

Hovland showed the greatest improvement of the three top golfers, with Scheffler also improving significantly. As Hovland still trails Scheffler and McIlroy by 0.5-0.7 strokes per round, he may need to improve his around the green performance by 0.3 SG, his approach performance by 0.2 SG, and his tee performance by 0.1 SG to make a run at the number one ranking.