Do NFL Teams Run the Ball Too Often on 2nd and Long?
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1st down incompletion, 2nd and 10 upcoming— a clear passing situation, right? After all, only the league's elite ball carriers (just nine this season) can consistently gain 10 yards on the ground over two plays to avoid 4th down. So, what's the better strategy here? Two consecutive pass plays, each designed to pick up 10 yards, or a single pass play, aiming for 5-7 yards after a 2nd down run?
In this analysis, I’ll dive into NFL teams' run/pass decision-making on 2nd down and evaluate whether their play-calling aligns with game theory optimal strategies. Has the league cracked the code or is there room for improvement?
To begin, I analyzed all 2nd-down plays from the past three NFL seasons that had at least 1,000 plays. This filtered out distances greater than 11 yards. Next, I divided the dataset into run plays and pass plays, examining the EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and WPA (Win Probability Added) per play for each scenario.
Below are the results:
Second Down Passes
Table 1: Analysis of Second Down Pass Plays from 2022 to 2024
As shown in Table 1, the percentage of pass plays increases as the distance to gain a first down grows. Pass plays have demonstrated particularly strong EPA (Expected Points Added) per play in the 5–7 yards to go range, as well as at 11 yards to go. Similarly, their WPA (Win Probability Added) per play is high in the 4–6 yards to go range and again with 11 yards to go. However, pass plays have performed poorly in both EPA and WPA when facing just 2 yards to go.
Second Down Rushes
Table 2: Analysis of Second Down Rush Plays from 2022 to 2024
Rush plays on 2nd down are notably less effective than pass plays. Teams struggle to generate positive expected points or win probability when running the ball on 2nd and 9 or 2nd and 10.
Let’s take a look at the relative performance of pass plays versus rush plays on second down.
Relative Performance of Pass Plays versus Rush Plays on Second Down
Table 3: Analysis of the Relative Performance of Second Down Pass and Rush Plays from 2022 to 2024
NFL teams are running the ball far too often on 2nd and 9, 2nd and 10, and 2nd and 11. The average 2nd and 10 run play is costing the offense 0.164 points relative to a pass play! That is enormous and adds up over the course of a game and season. Offenses should look to bump their pass percentages up to the mid-70% range in second and long situations to drastically improve their efficiency, while remaining unpredictable.
NFL teams are also passing the ball too often on 2nd and 2. Each 2nd and 2 pass play is costing them 0.076 points relative to a run play. 2nd and 1 is a great passing down, since the offense can look for a big play and then run for a 1-yard first down if they don’t connect. 2nd and 2 should actually have a lower pass percentage than 2nd and 1, since an incomplete pass leads to a tricky 3rd down attempt. Offenses should look to reduce their 2nd and 2 pass percentages to under 30%.
