Can Volpe Become a Better Base-Stealer?

Photo Credit: Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

With Statcast’s new baserunning and basestealing data released to the public, I wanted to take a look at the top base-stealers in 2024. Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe increased his stolen base total from 24 in 2023 to 28 this past season. How does he compare to the top base-stealers in the league, and how can we expect him to improve?

Table 1 below shows the top 30 base-stealers sorted by Stolen Base (SB) Run Value. Primary lead is the lead the baserunner gains before the pitcher begins his motion towards home plate, whereas secondary lead is the lead the baserunner gains up until the pitcher releases the ball.

Table 1: Top 30 base stealers in 2024 by SB Run Value.

Shohei Ohtani was the best-base stealer in 2024, worth 6.75 runs above average. Ohtani’s combination of an aggressive stolen base attempt rate (4.2%) and an excellent primary lead (13.2 ft) helped him top this leaderboard despite having only a 70th percentile sprint speed of 28.1 ft/sec.

Volpe (ranked 29th) managed just 1.79 runs above average despite having an 83rd percentile sprint speed of 28.6 ft/sec. Volpe’s risk-averse 2.8% stolen base attempt rate and his very small 10.5 ft primary lead are holding back his stolen base potential.

Instead of prioritizing his primary lead, Volpe times the pitcher with his momentum secondary lead. The momentum secondary lead allows him to get very strong jumps when he does steal, but its reliance on timing limits his stealing opportunities and it causes him to have a very poor non-stealing secondary lead since he is often forced to hop back towards first base when he does not have the pitcher timed well.

Ohtani’s primary lead when stealing is only 0.2 ft more than his average primary lead, hardly noticeable and in line with the strategy of the best base-stealers who take the same lead all the time, so they don’t give away information to the opposition. Volpe, however, chooses to increase his primary lead by 1 ft when stealing, delivering an obvious tell to the opposing team that he is planning to steal.

We can’t expect Volpe to increase his primary lead all the way to Ohtani’s 13.2 ft, since the 5’9 Volpe has much less reach than the 6’4 Japanese superstar. But Volpe could reach a lead of 12.7 ft, the average primary lead of 5’9 Mookie Betts.

If Volpe can extend his primary lead by 2.2 feet to match Betts, he can disguise his stolen base attempts much better while also positioning himself closer to second base and giving himself a better chance to take an extra base when he is not stealing. This strategy should allow him to increase his stolen base aggression as well, rather than relying on the timing of his momentum secondary lead.