Which Playoff Teams Have the Most Dominant Pitching?

Photo Credit: Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

October baseball is in full swing, and the Wild Card round didn’t disappoint! We saw some stunning upsets: the Tigers ousted the Astros, the Royals knocked out the Orioles, the Mets took down the Brewers, and the Padres triumphed over the Braves in the only series in which the home team won. Now, with just eight teams remaining, it's time for my final xwFIP analysis of the season. I'll be crowning the regular season champions among all pitchers and starters, and taking a deep dive into which playoff pitching staffs are best equipped to silence opposing lineups this fall.

Table 1 outlines the top 30 pitchers for the Regular Season of 2024 with a minimum of 50 innings pitched.

Table 1: 2024 Regular Season xwFIP top 30 pitchers (min. 50 innings pitched)

From start to finish, Mason Miller has dominated the xwFIP leaderboard this season, maintaining the top spot with authority. His 0.45 run lead over second place is as large as the gap between second and tenth place.

In a strong comeback season following knee surgery, Mets closer Edwin Díaz surged in the second half to secure the silver medal, posting an impressive 2.45 xwFIP. Meanwhile, Rangers reliever Kirby Yates capped off a remarkable year with a sparkling 1.17 ERA, earning him the xwFIP bronze.

Table 2 below lists the top 30 starting pitchers of the regular season, ranked by xwFIP.

Table 2: 2024 Regular Season xwFIP top 30 starting pitchers (min 15 starts and 85 innings pitched)

Rookie phenom Paul Skenes dazzled the baseball world this year, leading all starters with a stellar 2.76 xwFIP. Joining him on the podium are Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow—who unfortunately will miss the playoffs due to an arm injury—and White Sox standout Garrett Crochet.

Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, and Zack Wheeler also had tremendous seasons, finishing 4th through 7th among starters. Skubal and Sale, in particular, delivered historic performances, claiming the AL and NL Triple Crowns. Both are locks to take home the AL and NL Cy Young Awards.

With only eight teams left, who are the top pitchers still standing? Let’s have a look at Table 3.

Table 3: Top 30 pitchers still remaining in the 2024 playoffs (min 50 innings pitched)

Díaz is the most dominant pitcher remaining in the playoffs with only one other pitcher, Jeremiah Estrada of the Padres, also having an xwFIP under 3.00.

The next tier of elite playoff arms includes Tarik Skubal, Cleveland's duo of Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase, Reed Garrett of the Mets, and Philadelphia's Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm—all with xwFIPs under 3.25.

Notably, five of the top 30 playoff pitchers were acquired at the trade deadline: Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech (Los Angeles), Lucas Erceg (Kansas City), Tanner Scott (San Diego), and Ryne Stanek (New York Mets).

So Which Team Has The Best Pitching Staff?

Table 4 outlines each playoff team's number of elite pitchers and starting pitchers, along with their respective pitcher value score. This score reflects how many innings, in a 7-game series, each pitching staff can cover using elite pitchers. The calculation assumes that an elite starter can pitch around 14 innings over the series, while an elite reliever can handle about 8 innings.

Table 4: The number of elite pitchers and starting pitchers each playoff team has, along with the team’s pitcher value score

When it comes to elite pitching, the National League far outshines the American League. The Dodgers, Padres, and Phillies are particularly dominant, capable of covering nearly an entire 7-game series with elite arms. Each team boasts two top-30 xwFIP starters and three to four top-30 relievers.

The Mets, Tigers, and Royals can cover about half of a series with elite pitching, while the Guardians can manage roughly 35% of innings using their elite bullpen. The Yankees, however, lag behind, with their top two bullpen arms able to pitch just 25% of their playoff innings. As a result, they'll need to lean heavily on their offense if they hope to make a deep postseason run.