Is the Dodgers' Starting Lineup Optimal?
Photo via Baseball Prospectus
After winning the offseason by signing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, Japenese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and slugger Teoscar Hernandez, while trading for ace Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers are off to a fast start in 2024 with a 10-5 record, averaging a bludgeoning 5.4 runs per game (PECOTA projects them to average 5.38 this season). It doesn’t look like the team needs any help.
However, is their lineup construction optimal? In this analysis, I will assess if there is room for improvement.
The top four in the Dodgers lineup are as follows:
Mookie Betts (Righty)
Shohei Ohtani (Lefty)
Freddie Freeman (Lefty)
Will Smith (Righty)
Given that these four players are the most productive hitters on the team, it's logical to position them at the top of the lineup, granting them the most opportunities at-bat and providing the 2-3-4 hitters with ample chances to bat with runners on base. However, a pertinent question arises when analyzing these top four hitters: is it strategically wise to place two left-handed hitters consecutively? This approach may simplify opposing managers and pitching coaches' strategies. They can consistently bring in their strongest left-handed relievers to face both Ohtani and Freeman (though they might also need to contend with Betts or Smith).
Let’s see how this has fared so far for the Dodgers.
Table 1: Frequency of plate appearances (PAs) against each of right-handed pitchers (RHP) and left-handed pitchers (LHP) for the Dodgers’ top four hitters for their careers and in 2024
So far this season, Betts is facing LHPs 8.8% more often than he ever has for his entire career, Ohtani is facing LHPs 7.5% more often, Freeman is facing LHPs 10.3% more often, and Smith is facing LHPs 5.8% more often. Clearly, opposing pitchers are using LHPs much more often against this portion of the lineup due to the Dodgers batting their lefty hitters back to back.
Betts hits 9 wOBA-points better against lefties than righties, whereas Ohtani hits 49 wOBA-points worse, Freeman hits 48 wOBA-points worse, and Smith hits 20 wOBA-points worse. Smith’s reverse platoon splits are compounding the issue of the top of the Dodgers order, facing so many LHPs.
Table 2: wOBA impact, run impact, and win impact of the Dodgers’ top of the lineup ordering.
Given the heightened frequency of LHPs that the Dodgers will face in 2024 with their current top of the lineup ordering, Betts is poised to have a 1-point bump in his wOBA, Ohtani will lose 4 points, Freeman will lose 5 points, and Smith will lose 1 point. Over the course of a full season, the changes in wOBA translate to the Dodgers scoring 5 fewer runs and winning 0.5 fewer games.
How Can the Dodgers Avoid This Reduction in Run Scoring and Winning?
I suggest the following top of the lineup for them:
Freeman (Lefty)
Betts (Righty)
Ohtani (Lefty)
Smith (Righty)
Arranging their lineup with left-handed hitters separated at the top presents a strategic advantage. This configuration forces opposing teams that bring in a left-handed pitcher to face Freeman and Ohtani to also face Betts, rather than the alternative of facing Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith. Splitting the lefty batters should result in a decrease in the frequency of left-handed pitchers that the Dodgers' top hitters face, returning it back to around their career levels. Opting for this lineup structure instead of batting consecutive left-handed hitters could strengthen the Dodgers' use of the platoon advantage, potentially adding 0.5 wins to their season total.
