How Should The Yankees Pitch Against The Dodgers?
Photo Credit: Megan Briggs/Getty Images
A thrilling postseason is approaching its climax—a battle between each league’s juggernaut team. The 27-time champion Yankees are in the World Series for the first time since 2009 and the 7-time champion Dodgers are back in the Fall Classic for the fourth time in the last eight seasons, aiming to secure their first full-season title since 1988. The most common World Series matchup in being renewed for 12th time, the first since 1981 in which the Dodgers beat the Yankees in 6 games. The Yankees have won eight of their eleven World Series meetings, including the first five.
The Dodgers lineup averaged 5.2 runs per game this season (second to only the Diamondbacks). How should the Yankees pitch to them in their attempt at capturing their 28th title?
Let’s start by taking a look at the game’s biggest superstar—Shohei Ohtani.
Shohei Ohtani
Table 1 outlines Ohtani’s run value against each pitch type this past season.
Table 1: Ohtani’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
As we can see, the only pitch that Ohtani has struggled against this season is the cutter. That should be a pitch that Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and Luke Weaver use to induce weak contact from the powerful lefty.
Let’s look at Ohtani’s xwOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2024, depicted in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Ohtani’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties don’t have many spots to go to get Ohtani out. If they can get him to chase a breaking pitch or off-speed pitch below the strike zone, they may find some success. In an important situation late in the game, look for Aaron Boone to bring in a lefty to face Ohtani.
Figure 2 below illustrates Ohtani’s xwOBA against lefties.
Figure 2: Ohtani’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties need to pitch Ohtani on the outer part of the plate. A heavy dose of breaking balls away should be their best chance against the soon-to-be three-time MVP.
Mookie Betts
Table 2: Betts’ Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
As we see in Table 2, Betts has struggled slightly against changeups, sweepers, and curveballs this season. The Ohtani-Betts lineup lane could be a good matchup for both Weaver and Tommy Kahnle at some point this series. Carlos Rodon should attack the 2018 AL MVP with his less-used changeup and curveball, and Schmidt should look to use his sweeper against Betts. Luis Gil’s changeup should also be a factor against Betts in game 4. If Clay Holmes faces Betts, he should lean towards using his sweeper rather than his slider as the greater change in speed and greater horizontal movement are more effective against Betts.
Figure 3: Betts’ xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Given the heatmap of Figure 3, righties need to attack Betts up and in and down and away. Betts hammers mistakes down the heart of the plate and also controls the strike zone very well.
Figure 4: Betts’ xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties have had success against Betts in the upper/middle portion of the strike zone, as well as down and in. Pitching him backwards—starting him with offspeed pitches and finishing him off with high fastballs—could be a viable strategy for the Yankees left-handers.
Freddie Freeman
Table 3: Freeman’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Freeman is clearly hobbled by his ankle injury and does not pose the same extra-base threat that he normally does. Still, the Yankees cannot take the 2020 NL MVP lightly. This season, sinkers and cutters have both been effective against Freeman. Look for Cole, Schmidt, and Weaver to use their cutters often against Freeman and for Tim Hill and Holmes to match up against Freeman with their sinkers.
Figure 5: Freeman’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties need to pitch Freeman up and in to have consistent success. That means that Cole, Schmidt, Weaver will need to be locating their cutters precisely on the glove side.
Figure 6: Freeman’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
The platoon impact on Freeman is drastic. The Yankees should be looking to bring in left-handers Hill and Nestor Cortes to face him multiple times each in this series. Lefties can attack Freeman up in the zone, down and away, up and away outside of the zone, and below the zone.
Teoscar Hernandez
Table 4: Teoscar Hernandez’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Teoscar has hammered curveballs and changeups this season, and struggled against sliders and cutters. Cole, Rodon, and Gil’s four-seamer/slider combinations should have success against him. Holmes is a good matchup against Teoscar, but both Kahnle and Weaver have to be wary about leaving him changeups to hit over the plate.
Figure 7: Teoscar Hernandez’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties need to pitch Teoscar on the outer part of the plate. Not only does he struggle to create solid contact against the pitches on the outer third of the plate, but he also chases pitches off the plate. Other holes against righties include middle up and down and in out of the strike zone.
Figure 8: Teoscar Hernandez’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties have much less margin for error against the righty slugger. Cutter and sliders down and away out of the zone, along with cutters up and away and the occasional four-seamer down and in should yield some positive results.
May Muncy
Table 5: Muncy’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Muncy is a great fastball hitter, and he also has an incredibly low chase rate. In order to get the big lefty out, the Yankees will have to give him a heavy dose of off-speed and breaking pitches in the strike zone.
Figure 9: Muncy’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
The formula for right-handers against Muncy is to get ahead with off-speed pitches down and in and to finish him with four-seamers at the top of the zone.
Figure 10: Muncy’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Muncy’s drop off in production against southpaws is even more drastic than Freeman’s. He should also be seeing a heavy dose of Hill and Cortes in this series. Lefties should attack him with breaking pitches at the bottom of the zone and, like righties, look to finish him off with four-seamers at the top of the zone.
Tommy Edman
Table 6: Edman’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Edman, the NLCS MVP, had a shortened season due to injury and none of his run values stick out. It’s worth noting that the switch-hitting Edman is a much better hitter from the right side of the plate, with an average bat speed of 72.9 mph from the right side and just 68.8 from the left side (MLB average is 71.5). The Yankees should try to avoid having their lefty relievers face Edman.
Figure 11: Edman’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties should have success against Edman if they throw strikes and avoid the heart of the plate.
Figure 12: Edman’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties need to be more careful. They have to avoid the top of the zone, in addition to the middle of the plate. Down and away to Edman is also a hot zone when he’s batting from the right side. Lefties should predominantly pitch him down and in.
Will Smith
Table 7: Smith’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
The Dodger’s all-star catcher struggled against changeups and splitters this season. Look for Rodon, Gil, Kahnle, and Weaver to emphasize their changeups when they face Smith this series. Behind the plate, Smith grades at the 3rd percentile with -12 blocks above average, but at the 100th percentile with 10 caught stealing above average. Yankees baserunners should be cautious when it comes to stealing but need to take large secondary leads to make sure they advance on pitches in the dirt.
Figure 13: Smith’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Both righties and lefties need to pitch Smith on the outside part of the plate, as the right-handed catcher is often looking for something to pull. Righties have also had success pitching Smith down and in, whether painting the bottom corner or getting him to chase outside of the zone.
Figure 14: Smith’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties should strictly pitch Smith on the outer portion of the plate until he makes an adjustment. Attacking the outer third for strikes one and two and making him chase down and away for strike three is a successful combination.
Kike Hernandez
Table 8: Kike Hernandez’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
One of the best players in Dodgers postseason history, Kike has struggled mightily against four-seamers and curveballs this season. Two pitches that come out of the same arm-slot and spin in opposite directions can be particularly tricky for a hitter to decipher. Look for Cole and Rodon to attack Kike with their four-seamer/curveball combinations.
Figure 15: Kike Hernandez’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties should have success against Kike with four-seamers at the top of the zone, curveballs below the zone, and pitches on either edge of the plate. The one spot in the zone that they need to avoid is middle down.
Figure 16: Kike Hernandez’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties should attack Kike up and in and down and away. They need to avoid the middle third of the plate, where he can do some major damage.
Gavin Lux
Table 9: Lux’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Lux has struggled against sliders this season, to a tune of -5 runs. Coming off a hip flexor injury and not starting against lefty starting pitchers in four of the six NLCS games against the Mets, Lux figures to be on the bench against Carlos Rodon but at second base against Cole, Schmidt, and Gil.
Figure 17: Lux’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties can pitch Lux down and away with sliders, as he’s prone to chasing. Look for Cole, Schmidt, Gil, and Holmes to take that approach against Lux. Up and in is also a safe spot, but Lux does damage against pitches middle in and down and in.
Figure 18: Lux’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lux figures to get pinch hit for in an important spot against a lefty in this series.
Andy Pages
Table 10: Pages’ Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Rookie center fielder Andy Pages has struggled against four-seamers, sliders, and sweepers this season. Sliders have been especially difficult for him to handle. Pages has hit both changeups and cutters effectively, however. Holmes and Schmidt should run sinkers in on Pages while Cole Rodon, Gil, and Weaver should go at him with four-seamers. Kanhle may not be the best matchup for the Yankees here.
Figure 19: Pages’ xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Like many of the Dodgers right-handed hitters, Pages needs to be pitched away. He is looking for a pitch to pull and leaves himself vulnerable to four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders on the outer third.
Figure 20: Pages’ xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties have much more trouble against Pages. They need to pitch him up and in with heaters while being careful to avoid middle middle, down middle, down and in, and up and away.
Chris Taylor
Table 11: Taylor’s Run Value against each pitch type in 2024
Taylor may get the start in game 2 against Rodon, despite struggling mightily against four-seamers this season.
Figure 21: Taylor’s xwOBA heatmap against RHPs in 2024
Righties should have success against Taylor if they can live on the inner third, while occasionally going up and away and off the plate away.
Figure 22: Taylor’s xwOBA heatmap against LHPs in 2024
Lefties have three spots in the zone to attack to get Taylor out—down and in, down and away, and up and away. The can also try to get him to expand below the strike zone.
